19. April 2024
Canadian Election Forecasting
In Canada we are fortunate to have pretty good polling data on our leading political parties, even at the regional level.
Outdoors · 24. October 2023
NBA 2023-24 Over/Unders
With tip-off about to get underway, it's time to plot out my 2023-24 NBA win total over/under estimates.
International Relations · 22. October 2023
Taking Gaza City
Israel's seizure of Gaza City will come at incredible cost for all parties involved.
International Relations · 25. February 2022
All through December we watched as the Russian army ferried more and more troops to their western border, the movements captured by local cell phones and dash cams with careless abandon. As the number of arriving wagons grew so too did the likelihood of war. Still, I remained confident in my earlier analysis that war was not likely to happen. In late December the betting markets put a Russian invasion probability at 40% and I felt that a pretty fair estimate. The volume and nature of the...
Outdoors · 14. June 2021
Gardiner Dam to Outlook on the South Saskatchewan River makes an excellent day trip, for even the novice paddler.
International Relations · 02. May 2021
Modelling a Russian Invasion of Eastern Ukraine
This post models a potential Russian invasion of Eastern Ukraine. Relying on open-source data current to April 2021, the model results in a forecast of a successful Russian march to the Dnieper in 26 days, but at a cost of 10,500 dead Russian service members and 19,000 Ukrainian.
Economics · 26. September 2020
Re-Shoring Prospects
COVID grinding supply chains to a halt was one of the more remarkable aspects of the global pandemic. Unfortunately, restarting production--and safeguarding it going forward--is going to take a far different prescription than many currently offer.
02. March 2020
I’ve said this elsewhere, but the The 5.11 bail-out bag is the best diaper bag around. Set aside the tactical stylishness; the bag is unbeatably practical. The fact it is a) small enough to constrain the amount of baby gear you can bring—but also large enough to bring all the thingsyou *need*, and b) builtfor clear organization and quick access (there’s similarity in the amount of urgency accompanying the need for magazines and a burp cloth) put it head-and-shoulders over anyof the...
06. February 2020
A two-page infographic illustrating the basic information every lane swimmer needs to know.
21. January 2019
A calculator for tracking the score of the board game Ligretto.

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