This post models a potential Russian invasion of Eastern Ukraine. Relying on open-source data current to April 2021, the model results in a forecast of a successful Russian march to the Dnieper in 26 days, but at a cost of 10,500 dead Russian service members and 19,000 Ukrainian.
Clark - Modelling a Russian Invasion of Eastern Ukraine
PDF version of the April 2021 Russian invasion model.
Adobe Acrobat Document 3.9 MB
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